Is high oil price still a problem？

Many people thought the problem of high oil prices should have gone away by now. Either a reduction in the terrorism premium, a withdrawal of speculative money,a slowdown in Chinese demand or an increase in Opec（the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries）production should have reduced the crude price to more normal levels.

But here we are again with US crude oil futures nudging $53 a barrel. Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Opec's acting secretary-general, even said yesterday that the price could hit $80 if a major supply disruption were to occur.

The recent spike has been associated with cold weather in Europe and the US north-east, and some brief disruptions at US refineries yesterday. Gasoline prices also surged to a record high on Wednesday after some disappointing US inventory numbers.

But Jeffrey Currie, the Goldman Sachs analyst, says the spike has its origins in the recent improvement in economic data which saw the global leading indicator turn up for the first time in 10 months. That brought speculative interest back into many commodity prices.

Currie says many speculators had got out of commodity positions in the third and fourth quarters of 2004 and were short（betting on a price fall）early this year. The change in their position quickly added $3-$4 a barrel to the crude price.

Although Opec might be tempted to increase production,Currie says the oil price is more of a refinery problem than a production problem. Refineries lack the excess capacity to absorb the kind of oil Opec produces.

Of particular interest to investors will be the effect of higher oil on asset prices. Last year, spikes in oil prices coincided with falls in bond yields. Investors were clearly reasoning that crude would act as a tax on consumer demand. But this time round, the spike has been accompanied by a jump in US 10 year Treasury bond yields from 4 to 4.4 per cent.

Perhaps investors have decided that the economy is less vulnerable to high oil prices than it was in the past, given that last year's $50 plus peak was accompanied by rapid output growth. Or perhaps investors are now starting to worry that high commodity prices might, after all, be a sign of more general inflationary pressures.

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高價油還是問題嗎？

很多人以為高油價現在已不再是問題。恐怖主義溢價減少、投機資金撤出，中國需求放緩或歐佩克產量增加，這些因素應已把原油價格降低至更“正常”的水平。

但是，我們再次看到美國原油期貨觸及每桶53美元高點。歐佩克代理秘書長阿德南？謝哈布-埃爾?。ˋdnan Shihab-Eldin）昨天甚至說，如果供應出現大規模中斷，油價可能會升至80美元。

近期油價上漲與歐洲和美國東北天氣寒冷，以及美國煉油廠昨天出現的短暫生產中斷有關。由于美國庫存數據令人失望，周三汽油價格也飆升至創紀錄高點。

但高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師杰弗里·科里（Jeffrey Currie）說，油價上漲的根源在于近期經濟數據有所改善，后者表明全球領先指數在10個月中首次掉頭向上。這使得投機興趣回到很多大宗商品價格上。

科里表示，很多投機者在2004年第三和第四季度已結清大宗商品交易頭寸，在今年年初開始做空（下注賭價格下跌）。頭寸變化迅速使原油價格上漲3至4美元。

盡管歐佩克也許會受到高油價誘惑而增產，科里表示，油價“更多的是一個煉油問題而不是生產問題。一些煉油廠缺少過剩產能來吸收歐佩克增產的那些油?！?/P>

令投資者特別感興趣的是，油價上漲對資產價格帶來的影響。去年，油價飛漲與債券收益率下跌同時發生。當時投資者顯然在推斷，原油將令消費者需求下降。但這一次，在油價上漲的同時，美國10年期國債收益率從4%升到了4.4%.也許投資者的判斷是，現在油價對經濟的打擊將比過去要小，因為去年油價升至50美元以上的高位時，石油產量迅速增加。或者投資者現在開始擔心，大宗商品的高價格畢竟可能是更大范圍通脹壓力的一個信號。

重點詞匯

speculative adj.投機的

disruption n.中斷，分裂，瓦解，破壞

refinery n.精煉廠

inventory n.詳細目錄，存貨，財產清冊，總量

commodity n.日用品

coincidence n.一致，相合，同時發生或同時存在（尤指偶然）的事

accompany vt.陪伴，伴奏

vulnerable adj.易受攻擊的，易受……的攻擊

inflationary  adj.通貨膨脹的，通貨膨脹傾向的