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When there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal fins swirl around excitedly. Now that America's housing market is ailing, predators have their sights on the country's credit-card market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagion spreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs of strain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it had taken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partly because of weakness among card borrowers.

It is too early to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. According to Moody's, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% was almost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deterioration in rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.

The industry also reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumers pay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities is pretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. Dennis Moroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007 will end up being 25% higher than last year.

Direct channels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-card market certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debt now that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flow rather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger a change in borrowers' creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers' advantage. The incentives for consumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth less than the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repayment priorities as a result.

Card issuers are also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditions than mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering credit limits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets. “We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans,” says Gary Perlin, Capital One's chief financial officer.

If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contraction in credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face a grimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.

[A] make people alert to the potential danger

[B] attract the readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon

[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case

[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers

2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.

[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage

[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers

[C] the influence of the technical factors

[D] the change in relevant laws

3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising again because_____.

[A] there is a change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws

[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low

[C] the influence of the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested

[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse

4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.

[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness

[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt

[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt

[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher

5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.

[A] a gradual downward tendency

[B] a rapid collapse

[C] a sustained trend of lowering price

[D] the accumulation of economic recession

文章剖析：

這篇文章分析了美國次級抵押貸款危機可能影響到的信用卡市場。第一段指出信用卡市場已經出現疲軟跡象；第二段、第三段通過分析表示信用卡市場危機并未確定，不需要過于恐慌；第四段指出次級抵押危機與信用卡市場之間的傳染渠道；第五段指出信用卡規避風險的優勢；第六段指出信用卡市場更趨于經歷持續低迷的情況。

詞匯注釋：

dorsal fin n.[動物]背鰭 ailing adj. 景況不佳的，生病的

contagion n.傳染, 傳染病, 蔓延 charge-off n. 損耗

delinquency n. 逾期債款

難句突破：

(1) There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively.

[主體句式] There are rises in…

[結構分析] 這是一個簡單句，which 引導的非限定性定語從句是修飾前面的the charge-off and delinquency rates；在該定語從句中還有定語從句修飾the share of balances，在該定語從句中，前半個句子對應修飾the charge-off rates，后半個句子是個省略句，對應修飾the delinquency rates.

[句子譯文] 損耗率和逾期債款率都上升了，這兩個數據分別代表收不回來的收支差額的份額和晚了30天的份額。

(2) A change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.

[主體句式] A change led to an abrupt fall; the number would be rising.

[結構分析]這是一個復雜句，分號將前后兩個句子隔開。前面句子中，賓語帶有which引導的非限定性定語從句；后面句子是帶有方式狀語從句的復雜句。

[句子譯文]2005年美國個人破產法的一個改動使得破產登記急速下降，而后引起了信用卡大規模的虧損。破產登記數量（隨之的charge-off率）可以重新上升，不管貸款人的整體狀況是否變得更糟糕了。

題目分析：

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.

1. 背鰭與本文主題無關，作者提到背鰭是為了_____。

[A] make people alert to the potential danger

[A] 提醒人們注意潛在的危險

[B] attract the readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon

[B] 通過描述一個有趣的現象來吸引讀者的眼球

[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case

[C] 通過一個類似的案例讓人們意識到事情的嚴重性

[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers

[D] 通過向讀者傳授新的知識來使得文章更生動

[答案]A

[難度系數] ☆☆☆

[分析]推理題。文章在首尾都提到了背鰭。開頭提到一旦水中有血，背鰭就會變得興奮起來，接著就提到美國房地產衰退后，捕食者將目光轉移到信用卡市場。末尾提到要留心背鰭?？梢钥闯觯髡咛岬奖出捠且环N隱喻，意味著危險，因此選項A 比較符合題意。

2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.

2.損耗率和逾期債款率的升高意味著_____。

[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage

[A] 次級抵押貸款惡化

[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers

[B] 信用卡借貸人還貸能力較弱

[C] the influence of the technical factors

[C] 技術因素的影響

[D] the change in relevant laws

[D] 相關法律的變化

[答案]B

[難度系數] ☆☆

[分析] 推理題。文章在第一段提到，信用卡市場的疲軟跡象已經出現，接著就提到這兩個數字，損耗率和逾期債款率分別代表無法收回來的收支差額的份額和晚付了30天的份額，接著還舉例說香港匯豐銀行的14億美元費用就是部分因為信用卡借款人償還能力較弱。因此，這兩項升高表明信用卡市場出現問題。A不符合；B，是信用卡市場問題；CD在第二段提到，是引起這兩項升高的部分原因所在。因此，答案為B。

3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising again because_____.

2. 根據第三段，破產申請數量會再次增多是因為

_____。

[A] there is a change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws

[A] 美國個人破產法發生了變化

[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low

[B] 損耗率和逾期債款率還很低

[C] the influence of the change in the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested

[C] 個人貸款法律變化的影響已經被消化了

[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse

[D] 貸款人整體的情形趨于糟糕

[答案]C

[難度系數] ☆☆☆

[分析] 推理題。文章第三段最后提到不管貸款人整體的情況是否變壞，破產申請數量都會再次增多。前面又提到是因為2005年美國個人破產法有一定變化，破產申請才急劇降低，而后引發了信用卡市場的一些問題。因此，這項法律實行一段時間后，大家已經消化了這個變化，趨勢又會恢復正常。答案C最為貼切。

4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.

3. 次級抵押貸款危機影響信用卡市場

在于_____。

[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness

[A]資產價值的降低影響了信用卡借款人

的信用度

[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt

[B]抵押支付的減少導致了信用卡貸款的增加。

[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt

[C]家庭資產貸款的衰竭激發消費者償還信用卡貸款的積極性。

[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher

[D]房屋價格的下降使得信用卡貸款增加了更多。

[答案]C

[難度系數] ☆☆☆

[分析] 細節題。文章第四段提到次級抵押貸款危機和信用卡市場之間有直接感染的通道，因為家庭資產貸款衰竭，借款人就更愿意把信用卡的貸款償還清；而且因為房屋的價格比貸款還低，大家就不愿意還房屋抵押貸款，因此信用卡貸款償還在償還方面位居前列。選項中C符合這種推理，為正確答案。

5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.

5. 依作者來看，信用卡市場更可能受到_____的威脅。

[A] a gradual downward tendency

[A] 緩慢的衰退趨勢

[B] a rapid collapse

[B] 快速的崩潰

[C] a sustained trend of lowering prices

[C] 價格持續走低

[D] the accumulation of economic recession

[D] 經濟衰退日趨嚴重

[答案]A

[難度系數] ☆☆☆

[分析] 細節題。文章最后一段指出，次級抵押貸款式的突然垮臺可能不會出現在信用卡市場，更容易出現的是一種持續不斷的低迷。因此，信用卡市場更可能受到這種緩慢的低迷趨勢的影響。答案A最為符合題意。

參考譯文：

如果水中有血的話，那么自然地背鰭就會興奮地游來游去?，F在美國的房產市場景況不佳，掠奪者就把目光轉向了這個國家的信用卡體系。GoldmanSachs的分析師們認為如果這種趨勢從次級抵押擴散到消費者信用的其他形式的話，那么信用卡損失可能要達到990億美元。目前這種趨緊的跡象已經顯現。損耗率和逾期債款率都上升了，這兩個數據分別代表收不回來的收支差額的份額和晚了30天的份額。匯豐銀行上個月宣布在美國消費者金融行業的抵押款為14億美元，部分原因就在于信用卡貸款人的弱勢。

但現在恐慌還為時尚早。Chargeoffs和逾期債款率還不是很高。據一家評估機構Moody's估算，第三季度3.89%的逾期債款率比歷史平均值還低整整一個百分點。比率變差部分是由于技術原因。2005年美國個人破產法的一個改動使得破產登記急速下降，而后引起了信用卡大規模的虧損。破產登記數量（隨之的chargeoff率）可以重新上升，不管貸款人的整體狀況是否變得更糟糕了。

該行業還報告了真正的支付率，就是表示有多少貸款消費者每個月還清貸款了。盡管在其他結構性金融部分出現了癱瘓，但是對信用卡負債支持的有價證券信心還是堅定的。一家研究機構TowerGroup的工作人員Dennis Moroney 預計2007年發行數量最后將比去年高出25%。

次級抵押危機和信用卡市場之間存在直接的傳染通道，既然家庭資產貸款就衰竭了，消費者更傾向于將信用卡的貸款貸滿。但是信用卡發行人看到的是現金流動而不是資產價值，因此房產價格的下降并不一定會帶來貸款人信用度的改變，甚至會有利于發行人。如果消費者的財產還沒有貸款的金額高，那么消費者一直支付抵押貸款的動機就會削弱，最后信用卡貸款就會成為償還款項的最首位。

信用卡發行人也可以在遇到更為嚴峻的情況時，通過改變利率或信用額度，比房屋抵押借款人作出反應更快、更靈活些。這在理論上可以降低資產快速重新定價的風險?！拔覀儾幌Ｍ刑煲槐犻_眼就得全部重新估算貸款，”Capital One的首席金融官員Gary Perlin這樣說。

如果在信用卡市場中那種次級抵押式的突如其來的徹底崩潰是不可能的話，那么持續低迷的風險是更為真實的。如果房產低價格和信貸緊縮將美國引致衰退，那么該行業將會面臨更慘淡的未來。時刻留心那些背鰭吧。

[責任編輯:oasisli]